According the Watson Wyatt report "Effect of the Economic Crisis on HR Programs-- Update: April 2009,"  the worst may be over in terms of corporate cutbacks.  This doesn't mean we're "out of the woods" yet, but or at least a majority of firms surveyed believe they are done with making cuts to salary budgets, freezing pay, doing additional layoffs, etc.

Despite this encouraging information, it may well be too early to call a "bottom" to this economic cycle, and especially to the labor market, which tends to lag the overall economy anyway.

According to the Watson Wyatt study, it does appear as though many, if not most firms believe they are done, or nearly so, with making additional cutbacks.  For instance, according to a SHRM summary of the study, the majority of participating firms said they planned:

• No further salary reductions (89 percent).
• No further salary freezes (76 percent).
• No further hiring freezes (67 percent).
• No further organizational restructuring changes (65 percent).
• No further layoffs (53 percent).

We don't know if we're at the bottom yet, but it looks like we're at least starting to get close.  It is possible that maybe the worst is over, but only time will tell if that's the case. Keep your eye on weekly unemployment claims (which tend to peak 2-3 months before an economic upswing starts), a bottom in housing (not yet!), and improved consumer confidence. Consumer confidence has recently turned upward, but from a very low level, so its too early to say we've turned the corner yet in this area.

Does that mean it's off to the races, once a recovery starts?  That's highly unlikely, and the almost no one is predicting any significant economic recovery before 2010, with the labor market recovery trailing the rest of the economy upwards.  But, it does look like we are starting to near to a bottom, and that would be a good thing for just about everyone.