The 3rd Quarter U.S. Employment Outlook is Stable (not down, and that's a good thing!).  Labor market trends have been quite negative for over a year now, so "stability," if it occurs, would be a vast improvement.

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey (MEOS), which just published its latest results last week,  shows that the employment outlook over is stable for the 3rd quarter vs. the 2nd quarter of 2009.  Not exactly growth, but as one of my colleagues said recently, "flat is the new growth." For now at least, no further deterioration is the new "up."

"When we account for ongoing calibration of the data, employer attitudes about hiring remain essentially unchanged compared to the previous quarter," said Jeffrey Joerres, chairman and CEO of Manpower Inc. "While the numbers may not be as optimistic as we would like, it is positive to see no further deterioration."

The survey of over 28,000 employers found that 15% anticipate an increase in their staffing levels,  while 13% expect a decrease in their payrolls. Two-thirds (67%) expect no change in their July-September hiring plans and 5% said they were undecided about their hiring intentions.

"The data shows continued hesitancy among employers," said Jonas Prising, president of the Americas for Manpower Inc. "They are treading slowly and watching with guarded optimism, hoping a few quarters of stability will be the precursor to the recovery."

The survey results show employers in seven of the 13 sectors studied expect hiring to remain stable in third quarter compared to second quarter. The survey shows that employers in construction as well as wholesale and retail trade anticipate moderate increases; non-durable goods manufacturing and leisure and hospitality employers expect a slight increase in hiring activity compared to second quarter.

Slight decreases are expected in education and health services and government (these have been among the strongest sectors over the past year). Employers in the following sectors said they will keep hiring levels relatively stable for third quarter: durable goods manufacturing, transportation and utilities, information, financial activities, professional and business services, and other services.

Regionally, the West has a weaker outlook for third quarter compared to second quarter;  all regions have a weaker outlook compared to this time last year.

Let's hope that the anticipated stability in the 3rd quarter leads to improvement in the 4th quarter!