The Changing Landscape of Rewards
Doug Sayed, SPHR, CCP, Applied HR Strategies, Inc.
The past two years has seen the quickest and most dramatic shifts in compensation (aka "rewards") practices ever. In the past two years, we've witnessed "the sky is falling" near-collapse of 2008 to the "big one" recession of 2008 - 2009, and the end to entitlement compensation as we knew it (in 2009, when well over 50% of companies reduced and/or eliminated their salary increase budgets for the year).
Now that we're in allegedly in recovery mode, it is back to normal for compensation and rewards professionals or something else (perhaps a "new" normal)? I believe the answer is decidedly "something else."
Let's look at what's happening in some major areas of compensation and rewards, and you tell me if you think we're getting close to back to normal.
The Labor Market
Wow - what a mess! Over eight million jobs were lost during the recession, and chances are that it will take at least three years or more just to get back to employment levels last seen in 2007. The recent jobs recovery has been tepid at best, and when you take out government and temporary hiring there has been barely any job creation in the private sector. Even though the official unemployment rate topped out at 9.9%, we've only dropped to 9.6% and without people dropping out of the labor market in frustration; I would wonder if unemployment has really dropped much at all.
Base Pay
Salary increase and "merit" budgets plummeted in 2009, and will remain at historically low levels (but higher than 2009). If you were lucky enough to stay employed and get a pay increase, it was likely quite small by historical standards. Overall, wages rose about 1.5% in 2009 according to government statistics. If you include people who had to take pay cuts to land another job and/or take part-time or temporary work, the overall increase is likely close to zero.
With labor market weak and supply far out-stripping demand, wage growth will almost certainly be slow for years. And with healthcare cost inflation continuing unabated; these increased costs will likely chew up most of employers' payroll increase budgets.
A few high demand areas will continue to do reasonably well. Healthcare should remain firm, and many highly-skilled technology and biotechnology jobs are in good demand, relative to supply. Overall though, there just isn't sufficient job demand to provide the impetus of anything but very slow wage growth in the near term.
Merit budgets will stay at historically low levels and employers are going to have to find other ways to "compensate" for the dearth of extra base pay dollars.
Employee Benefits
One of the biggest factors impacting employers' unwillingness to take their foot off brakes on trying to contain fixed costs are the unabated increases in the cost of providing healthcare coverage for their workforces. While healthcare cost inflation has dropped a bit in the past year or two, it's still running at several times the rate of inflation, as it has been for most of the past two decades.
Don't expect so-called healthcare reform to save the day (which was in reality, mostly healthcare insurance reform). Employers will struggle to manage high healthcare cost inflation with competing compensation dollars for the foreseeable future.
Short-Term Incentives
One area that should show a nice rebound is in funding for (and payouts of) short-term cash incentives (often referred to as "bonus" programs). The trend towards greater spending on short-term variable pay programs continues, despite a significant hiccup in 2009.
Budgets for variable pay have more than doubled as a percentage of payrolls since the early 90s and have continued to move slowly upwards over the years. Hewitt predicts 2011 variable pay budgets will be between 11% and 12% of payroll, and forecasts 16% in 2020. Of course, no one has a crystal ball, but I'm certain we are moving in that general direction.
Increased variable pay for results, rather than a return to more normal levels of merit pay for the masses are the general direction I see cash rewards going in the private, for-profit sector of the economy.
Long-Term Incentives
Long-terms incentives, typically provided in the form of stock/equity grants have been trending downward for non-executives for a few years now, starting well before the recession hit. During the bear market for stocks everyone who received equity grants took a hit, but while stock-based compensation for executives may well rebound fully, they won't below the executive level, for a variety of reasons.
In the post Internet bubble, post stock expensing world, the broad-based use of stock options has been declining for the past several years. According to one study by Equilar, the use of options in large public companies has dropped from 92.5% in 2004 to 77% in 2009. And while some other equity vehicles such as restricted stock had been on the rise during the same time period, their increase won't make up for the overall decline in equity granting levels that peaked early in the new millennium.
In addition to the reasons mentioned above, shareholders groups are generally unhappy with high burn rates (shares granted each year as a percentage of shares outstanding), high overhang (potential stock dilution from employee stock grants), and in some case the huge dollars that are spent re-purchasing stock to counter dilution from employee stock grants (in public companies).
Other Rewards
The 2010s may well become the era of non-dollar denominated rewards, or "qualitative" rewards, as companies strive for ways to retain and engage their workers. With relatively few new fixed compensation dollars to going into workers pockets, these more qualitatively oriented rewards focused more on employee development, worker psychology, corporate culture and the like are going to be the next wave of rewards, in my opinion.
After many years of increasing demands on workers, many in workforce today are fed up with the "doing more with less" trend. Multiple workforce studies conducted in the past few years have shown declining morale, commitment and engagement with work, and north of 50% of employees that claim to want to change job for the proverbial "greener pastures."
With the general decline in morale and worker commitment, efforts to enhance and improve the work experience are where the action is at for more forward-thinking organizations.
We would love to hear your thoughts on where you see rewards heading.
(For a more detailed version of this post, including graphics, please contact the author directly at doug@appliedHRstrategies.com).
Doug Sayed is principal at Applied HR Strategies, Inc., a Seattle-area compensation consultancy. Applied HR Strategies is also partnering with the Washington Technology Industry Association (WTIA) on the development of the new WTIA Salary Survey, due to be launched in the late fall of 2010.

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